MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec0516c467a06a5f9ee2df34913b16e758fe5cc257d94b45b9800766ce6772fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 49c | 7,116$3,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,663.31 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 7,079$3,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,794.99 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 53c | 6,104$3,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,234.99 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 47c | 2,966$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.48 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 2,611$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 54c | 2,319$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 1,805$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.95 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 1,675$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 50c | 1,591$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.5 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 53c | 1,511$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.58 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 1,452$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.62 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 1,408$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 53c | 1,238$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.5 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 1,116$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 46c | 1,108$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.71 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Over | 46c | 1,046$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.16 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 52c | 836.5$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.71 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 54c | 502.51$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.1 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 32c | 495.4$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 46c | 405.85$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.86 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 263.01$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 46c | 249$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.46 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 54c | 222.66$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.42 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 54c | 200$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 74c | 194.58$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 58c | 150.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 42c | 145.45$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 32c | 136.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…2760backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 57c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…df6dbacked Under | 60c | 70.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 54c | 50.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 50.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 55c | 47.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 42.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 46c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…ba8bbacked Over | 54c | 34.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Over | 54c | 27.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 27.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 47c | 25.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 47c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 54c | 21.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 52c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…823dbacked Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…760ebacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.