South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b667235d4810b46232ebbf4e0ca20cbfed43e1d87adb8fd2b214b10c729293c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf80…3259backed Under | 65c | 2,180$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.08 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 60c | 1,833$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 35c | 1,452$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.69 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 1,324$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.88 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 938.83$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.5 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 42c | 911.86$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.77 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 3c | 790.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 311 | 36.7%114 W · 197 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked Under | 54c | 573.3$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.58 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…5390backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 35c | 387.75$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.71 | 217 | 52.1%113 W · 104 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 75c | 366.67$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 28c | 321.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.43 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 72c | 263.37$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.77 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 36c | 229.39$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.97 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Under | 46c | 189$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 44c | 185.77$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.03 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 33c | 158.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Over | 60c | 140$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 31c | 135.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.2 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 33c | 119.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc28c…6fb2backed Under | 74c | 108.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4333backed Over | 69c | 108$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 102.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 34c | 90.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…3ddcbacked Under | 63c | 87.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 61c | 81.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 25c | 76.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 26c | 65.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeda…8e35backed Under | 60c | 61.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 52c | 37.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 194 | 47.9%93 W · 101 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bf…9100backed Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…7520backed Under | 71c | 35.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d46…26d8backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a8…64afbacked Over | 57c | 18.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 76c | 16.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: Botafogo FR O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: CA Paranaense O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: CA Paranaense O/U 2.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.