South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x461fbf18ca9d8f40c53376d9a6accd519582a88446a828d61ce104ea0361145f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 75c | 5,000$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,749.99 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 22c | 1,942$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.37 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 25c | 1,392$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…2e83backed Over | 25c | 1,384$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.29 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 9c | 1,073$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.34 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 39c | 659.97$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.58 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 18c | 415.78$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.99 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked Over | 4c | 361.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.12 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 314.86$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.8 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 9c | 254.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.64 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 12c | 216.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.57 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 76c | 133.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 12c | 123.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.88 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…105dbacked Over | 40c | 102.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 20c | 85.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.56 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…4a1fbacked Over | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Under | 74c | 67.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d12…ccc3backed Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 25c | 55.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a7…7042backed Over | 23c | 51.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b7…602bbacked Over | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…f598backed Under | 79c | 49.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Over | 76c | 30.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 27.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…7537backed Over | 43c | 23.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: Botafogo FR O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: CA Paranaense O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: CA Paranaense O/U 2.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.