South American Leagues · resolved market
Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: 1st Half O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeab6a21a73a213d1d414cb4147669a54a6a08460f6ecf1fbd6fd5d89b0055af5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fa9…09fabacked Over | 32c | 1,254$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.71 | 106 | 35.8%38 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 1,246$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 22c | 992.68$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.39 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 50c | 399.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 50c | 209.76$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.88 | 221 | 45.7%101 W · 120 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 771 | 51.4%396 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 50c | 91.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 70.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 74c | 54.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 144 | 63.9%92 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 38c | 53.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 77c | 50.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 25c | 42.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 35c | 30.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 150 | 57.3%86 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 67c | 19.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 632 | 61.2%387 W · 245 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: 1st Half O/U 2.5this page
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: Botafogo FR O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: CA Paranaense O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: CA Paranaense O/U 2.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 1.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5Over won
- Botafogo FR vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.