NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b76be47b94202eb4add01f39d0219da9445b0cf9682b195452ff6590474d9ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Trail Blazers, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 43c | 640.51$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.29 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 470$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.6 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Suns | 59c | 445.41$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.63 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | +18.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Suns | 52c | 410$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Suns | 57c | 289.05$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.48 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Suns | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Suns | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Suns | 55c | 94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Suns | 55c | 70.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Suns | 57c | 69.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Suns | 52c | 52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Suns | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Suns | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Suns | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…1974backed Suns | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 44c | 26.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…c10abacked Suns | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Suns | 56c | 25.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 339 | 49.9%169 W · 170 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Suns (-1.5)Suns won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-4.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. Trail BlazersSuns won
- Suns vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Suns vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Suns vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Suns vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.