NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b8caf7112cd7ca5ce4d254631bdbd7bf87149f2047e38b32ce93d7c52199cd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rangersof Red Wings, Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Red Wings | 37c | 443.47$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.28 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Rangers | 65c | 384$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Red Wings | 35c | 381.74$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.74 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Red Wings | 36c | 250.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Rangers | 67c | 175.56$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rangers | 64c | 158.21$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Red Wings | 37c | 111.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rangers | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Red Wings | 28c | 93.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Rangers | 67c | 74.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rangers | 72c | 64.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Rangers | 63c | 57.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Red Wings | 37c | 55.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Rangers | 68c | 50.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rangers | 62c | 48.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Red Wings | 35c | 47.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Red Wings | 34c | 38.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Red Wings | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Rangers | 65c | 32.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Rangers | 66c | 31.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rangers | 63c | 30.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bc…a87fbacked Red Wings | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Rangers | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Rangers | 69c | 28.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Rangers | 66c | 24.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Rangers | 63c | 22.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Rangers | 66c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb1…7ef7backed Rangers | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Rangers | 60c | 18.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. RangersRangers won
- Red Wings vs. Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Rangers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Red Wings vs. Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Red Wings vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.