Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b9beee83b08133358344f14cc1ad072d6c24430c692a1e1511ec2207f99c8c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 293.8$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 235.71$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.1 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 72c | 165.93$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 165.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.38 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 51c | 142.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 34c | 137.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 136$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 65c | 120.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 95.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 89.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 47c | 85.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25d…e6b8backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 23c | 70.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 30c | 67.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 67.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 56c | 65.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked Yes | 60c | 62.59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 19c | 62.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 33c | 59.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 59.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 41c | 59.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 35c | 57.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 54c | 55.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 54.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 54c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 21c | 53.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 51c | 53.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 34c | 49.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 27c | 44.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 33c | 44.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 42.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 38.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 33c | 36.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 68c | 36.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 43c | 35.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 66c | 32.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 67c | 31.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed No | 43c | 31.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 42c | 24.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 65c | 24.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 66c | 22.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 20.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 59c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 16.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…47b7backed Yes | 78c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 36°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 35°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 37°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 38°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 39°C or higher on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.