MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bc006743f0cc2bf09fe81e82a6131d20fc410b249709835d449f0dbe6aac624
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 46c | 1,387$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.85 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 54c | 1,309$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.18 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 1,087$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.02 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 54c | 1,061$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.21 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 958$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Under | 53c | 929.1$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.96 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 47c | 905.96$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.85 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 51c | 420.86$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.43 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 49c | 406.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Over | 46c | 240$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Over | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…7210backed Over | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 34.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 45c | 32.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…82aabacked Over | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Under | 54c | 27.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef5d…530dbacked Over | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…3be8backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7888…9a0fbacked Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 48c | 22.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 54c | 21.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.