MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa8135bc191d753325d25e2a081696d5cafe84cb9d8c92f5cfb19754a32fc03b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 3,073$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.42 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Kansas City Royals | 58c | 1,977$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.58 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 1,943$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.58 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Seattle Mariners | 68c | 1,464$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.18 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 37c | 1,322$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.58 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 999.99$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 894.43$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.66 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…2485backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 799.4$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.64 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 774.27$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.3 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 714.23$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.54 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 56c | 509.71$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.62 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 508.54$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.78 | 119 | 48.7%58 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 297.54$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 36c | 287.83$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 254.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.95 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 220.07$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.04 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 173.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kansas City Royals | 50c | 127.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 48c | 111.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 99.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Seattle Mariners | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 30c | 56.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Kansas City Royals | 67c | 45.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…d7fabacked Kansas City Royals | 60c | 37.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 35.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed Seattle Mariners | 29c | 34.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 33.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 33.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 32.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 31.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Kansas City Royals | 38c | 29.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 26.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Seattle Mariners | 68c | 15.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Kansas City Royals | 71c | 15.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.