MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2138a5d9ec508da548b4e2c68f9fe2fa70a0d108f2d42e3bee576a7b6322a75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 25c | 7,050$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 75c | 5,752$4,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Seattle Mariners | 71c | 642.41$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.3 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 77c | 537.77$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 67c | 282.15$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Seattle Mariners | 76c | 272.33$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78de…86bebacked Kansas City Royals | 10c | 155.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Kansas City Royals | 22c | 136.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Seattle Mariners | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Kansas City Royals | 31c | 83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…d825backed Kansas City Royals | 25c | 67.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Kansas City Royals | 29c | 58.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Seattle Mariners | 77c | 56.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…2779backed Seattle Mariners | 66c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Kansas City Royals | 24c | 44.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Seattle Mariners | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Seattle Mariners | 68c | 35.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.