World Politics · resolved market
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 50-52 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bf43a567a4b91a70faa1633ef773ca43ef6a7714d04c3ff56c47625ac5d3961
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 4c | 2,425$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…5b12backed Yes | 55c | 1,819$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed No | 79c | 981.58$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 3c | 563.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 19c | 399.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.79 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 63c | 150.48$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 29c | 133.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ab…728dbacked Yes | 28c | 107.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 53c | 97.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…dbafbacked Yes | 28c | 71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 48.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 40c | 34.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 65c | 24.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Partido Popular (PP) win 50-52 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?this page
- Will Partido Popular (PP) win 53-55 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?Yes won
- Will Partido Popular (PP) win 56-58 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?No won
- Will Partido Popular (PP) win 59-61 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?No won
- Will Partido Popular (PP) win 62 or more seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?No won
- Will Partido Popular (PP) win fewer than 50 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.