Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bf7495428220e3f7c76f042938431e9de1e184ad7c3baa68dfd18b6ed0f8499
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 2,509$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 75c | 491.4$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 402.81$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 34c | 354.47$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 279.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 272.5$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 9c | 271.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 7c | 230.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 13c | 203.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 12c | 169$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 158.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 155.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 20c | 138.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 19c | 128.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 119.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 33c | 117.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 111.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 23c | 103.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 29c | 99.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 31c | 98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 96.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 69c | 91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 26c | 86.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 86.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 17c | 77.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 74c | 74.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked No | 74c | 69.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 69.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 68.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 65.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 76c | 62.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 19c | 61.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 52.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 26c | 50.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2914backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 36.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 74c | 35.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 23.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 72c | 20.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 18.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 66c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 15.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.