Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b83a65b5a9096377b4ef715badfbb969de438fe7a207269e4a565b08079dc69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 647.06$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.47 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 641.07$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.05 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 24c | 514.77$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.32 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.48 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 60c | 470.03$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.57 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 24c | 405.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 320.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 56c | 303.9$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.61 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 272.5$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 269.92$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 53c | 239.52$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 6c | 233.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 63c | 230.77$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.95 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 17c | 224.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 39c | 218.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.88 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 70c | 214.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.38 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked Yes | 39c | 187.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.15 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 18c | 187$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.58 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 186.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 173$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 61c | 149.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 17c | 147$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 61c | 145.36$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 142.6$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.76 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 136.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 129.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 119$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 28c | 116.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.81 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 29c | 112.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 74c | 109.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 109.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 44c | 109.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 105.8$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 49c | 102.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 39c | 102.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.52 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 37c | 101$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 15c | 100.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 26c | 98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…4c39backed Yes | 19c | 95.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 92.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 21c | 89.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 76c | 87.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 27c | 77.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 76.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed No | 26c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 27c | 75.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 33c | 75.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 58c | 74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…e428backed No | 64c | 70.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 47c | 67.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 27c | 66.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 65.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 24c | 64.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 29c | 64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 22c | 63.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb033…4f19backed Yes | 39c | 62.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 38c | 60.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 23c | 59.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 54c | 57.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 56.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…a187backed Yes | 38c | 52.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 45c | 51.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 50c | 51.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 51.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f3…315fbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 47cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 25c | 49.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 42c | 46.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 45.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 52c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a6…9351backed Yes | 58c | 43.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 63c | 41.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 49c | 40.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 37.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 66c | 35.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 38c | 34.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 30.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 77c | 28.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 52c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 57c | 26.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.