Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x797d212f754178d441847cbec2bf3cc93d9a2940c6ecc1974f1d5419d4e721b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 8,854$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 23c | 505$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.06 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 430.55$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 30c | 416.82$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.27 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 33c | 303.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 298.96$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 249.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 33c | 244.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 31c | 239.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed No | 62c | 202.74$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 201.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…2bfcbacked Yes | 15c | 200.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…82bdbacked Yes | 6c | 199.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes | 8c | 184$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 145 | 24.1%35 W · 110 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 29c | 172.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 22c | 161.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…4c39backed Yes | 13c | 159.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 26c | 156.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…f85dbacked No | 76c | 149.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked No | 75c | 141.62$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 22c | 136.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 35c | 134.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58a6…9351backed Yes | 22c | 125$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 11c | 114.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 111.44$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 110.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…0cc9backed Yes | 24c | 104.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 28c | 94.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…33e8backed Yes | 20c | 85.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 75.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 39c | 70.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 67.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 31c | 62.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 79c | 61.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 70c | 57.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 72c | 54.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 72c | 54.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e3…6867backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 77c | 48.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 61c | 48.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 31c | 46.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 44.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 34c | 41.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 29c | 37.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes | 31c | 37.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 33c | 31.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43d1…a942backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 68c | 26.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 23.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 23.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 23.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 22.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked No | 77c | 18.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 15.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.