MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bff7a8614eb73c09855be87c332b17f2093457fefd4766d94c2a7c9b3c4cd1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 10,041$5,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,859.96 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Colorado Rockies | 48c | 3,593$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,724.4 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 2,722$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 2,313$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.37 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 246 | 39%96 W · 150 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…aa7dbacked Colorado Rockies | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Colorado Rockies | 2c | 1,977$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 1,760$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.2 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 1,760$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.2 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Colorado Rockies | 48c | 1,160$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.34 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Colorado Rockies | 10c | 962.15$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.54 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 786.53$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.4 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 721.41$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.06 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 557$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.16 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 516.1$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.47 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 423.39$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.14 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 381.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.16 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 247.71$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.61 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f45…e6a7backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 144.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 140.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Colorado Rockies | 47c | 131.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…2a2ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Colorado Rockies | 48c | 54.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Colorado Rockies | 49c | 50.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed Colorado Rockies | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 41.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdb…6ab2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 36.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba71…1209backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 35.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…2deebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 27.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b7…5f6bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 23.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Colorado Rockies | 48c | 21.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e9…aa24backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-6.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-8.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado RockiesTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 16.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.