MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c17489f4839802e56a6bbe104798219cc088c6e2bac3591ddea89cecf70cad3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 53c | 4,699$2,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490.21 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 53c | 3,780$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.4 | 712 | 53.4%380 W · 332 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 1,978$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.6 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 1,758$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.03 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 52c | 1,525$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…e11cbacked Under | 53c | 1,509$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 1,375$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.49 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 47c | 1,002$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.06 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 15c | 851$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 47c | 487.44$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.34 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 58c | 416.1$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.49 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 47c | 390$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.7 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 47c | 382.33$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.46 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 366.76$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.93 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 234.06$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 53c | 212.8$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.78 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 196.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.25 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 53c | 181$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 177.37$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 53c | 161$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 54c | 151.88$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 48c | 140.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 68c | 134.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 55c | 108.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Over | 47c | 106.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…25fabacked Under | 45c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Under | 53c | 75.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 325 | 52.9%172 W · 153 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 47c | 70.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…41b6backed Under | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 19c | 62.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed Over | 48c | 62.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 55c | 37.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 70c | 35.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 48c | 33.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 29.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…5884backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Over | 47c | 27.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Over | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…951ebacked Under | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 22.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd678…4492backed Under | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 67c | 21.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 67c | 19.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5this page
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-6.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-8.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado RockiesTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 16.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.