Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c25396f02015daef5fc70c22fdd46b7d4d14175f1edc19f358e26e45e789844
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Adelaide United FCof Melbourne Victory FC, Adelaide United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Adelaide United FC | 67c | 622.48$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.42 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Melbourne Victory FC | 22c | 370.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.93 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Melbourne Victory FC | 38c | 263.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Melbourne Victory FC | 39c | 259.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Melbourne Victory FC | 38c | 213.84$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…41c4backed Adelaide United FC | 62c | 170.65$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Adelaide United FC | 61c | 165$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Adelaide United FC | 62c | 64.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Adelaide United FC | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e2…0dcdbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 39c | 59.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Adelaide United FC | 61c | 52.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Adelaide United FC | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…bce5backed Melbourne Victory FC | 38c | 44.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a6…0b06backed Melbourne Victory FC | 38c | 42.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x820e…9db7backed Melbourne Victory FC | 38c | 41.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…4d28backed Melbourne Victory FC | 38c | 40.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…27d6backed Adelaide United FC | 79c | 40.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Adelaide United FC | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3746…a99fbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 43c | 36.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…6c27backed Adelaide United FC | 56c | 35.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Adelaide United FC | 61c | 33.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…5b36backed Adelaide United FC | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Adelaide United FC | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Adelaide United FC | 59c | 29.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Melbourne Victory FC | 38c | 28.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Melbourne Victory FC | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Adelaide United FC | 62c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…d5a7backed Adelaide United FC | 65c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Adelaide United FC | 71c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.