Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbed71d8f5ab67ab0ae619d424d7cb2ff2c477c90006e389a581dd56a2508c513
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 21c | 11,308$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,358.16 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 72c | 8,255$5,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,293.87 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 28c | 3,326$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.69 | 147 | 55.1%81 W · 66 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Under | 74c | 2,878$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…d08bbacked Under | 70c | 2,623$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 34c | 1,091$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.3 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 28c | 892.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 35c | 874.36$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.03 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 72c | 555.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Over | 21c | 348.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 21c | 291.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 20c | 274.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 35c | 265.32$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 61c | 219.14$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 29c | 186$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…8f1abacked Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 31c | 160$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 10c | 139.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Under | 66c | 124.24$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…3ed4backed Over | 29c | 123.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 18c | 119.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 41c | 115.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6596…b50bbacked Under | 72c | 87.18$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 29c | 81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 29c | 75.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 36c | 72.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Over | 32c | 71.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 28c | 64.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…9aadbacked Under | 74c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…f08bbacked Over | 28c | 51.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 36c | 48.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Over | 28c | 48.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 73c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c21…12bdbacked Over | 28c | 37.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…3a2abacked Under | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-1.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5)Melbourne Victory FC won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Adelaide United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.