Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c41a4b99ab995c342247b146682f5754f2cc6cf17bf143e230225f92171966f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 1,090$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.93 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Yes | 24c | 1,051$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 76c | 820.84$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 69c | 650.2$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.69 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 606.81$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.62 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 31c | 601.82$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.56 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 24c | 234.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 25c | 80.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 75c | 60.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2011…f296backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 74c | 48.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?this page
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-27?No won
- Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2025-11-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.