Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0951a8984d09f0bb38eaa057c13b60ff6c4da92bc4f05b38939893601af70949
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 48c | 2,566$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.31 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 37c | 1,553$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.19 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.97 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 40c | 1,332$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.26 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 63c | 937.64$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.4 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 65c | 550.94$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.12 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 42c | 528$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.76 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 24c | 415$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 63c | 400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…491dbacked Yes | 60c | 250.63$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 61c | 243.07$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.27 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…2ad8backed Yes | 59c | 210.94$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 62c | 192$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 36c | 149.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 62c | 121.74$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…922ebacked Yes | 59c | 118.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 61c | 112.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.01 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 63c | 79.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 41c | 73.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…c6b9backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 59c | 42.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked No | 41c | 41.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 34cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…d732backed Yes | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d94…5d78backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe141…ea2dbacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1170…8398backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…e0c1backed Yes | 58c | 29.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 79c | 14.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-27?this page
- Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw?No won
- Will ŠK Slovan Bratislava win on 2025-11-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.