Serie A · resolved market
Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c41a68ad5a6aa2323b05dbf386830141f8b942b2504dbf753fae9170140297e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ACF Fiorentinaof Juventus FC, ACF Fiorentina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Juventus FC | 13c | 2,092$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.6 | 342 | 39.2%134 W · 208 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked ACF Fiorentina | 72c | 999.54$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.47 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Juventus FC | 5c | 913$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 397 | 40.6%161 W · 236 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Juventus FC | 8c | 902.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Juventus FC | 15c | 298.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd2…e477backed ACF Fiorentina | 74c | 129.2$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed ACF Fiorentina | 74c | 99.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed ACF Fiorentina | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82d…7882backed Juventus FC | 28c | 55.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Juventus FC | 29c | 44.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked ACF Fiorentina | 71c | 44.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3350…9588backed ACF Fiorentina | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Juventus FC | 28c | 40.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 274 | 53.3%146 W · 128 L | +18.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…521fbacked ACF Fiorentina | 78c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed ACF Fiorentina | 72c | 14.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5)this page
- Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 0.5Over won
- Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5Over won
- Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5Under won
- Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 3.5Under won
- Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 4.5Under won
- Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.