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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on August 23?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,234
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,067

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,234 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2edc…a207backed Yes54c703.6$381 inLost-$380.989929.3%29 W · 70 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x710b…a42dbacked Yes33c633.73$212 inLost-$212.1222825.9%59 W · 169 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes5c319.35$16 inLost-$15.788,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes7c309.84$23 inLost-$22.7928632.2%92 W · 194 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No78c277.71$217 inWon+$60.6182742.8%354 W · 473 L+28.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes17c240$40 inLost-$40.4447033.6%158 W · 312 L+23.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes14c211.31$30 inLost-$30.264,70026.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L+64.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes16c177.78$29 inLost-$29.081,86625.4%474 W · 1,392 L+134.7wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+53.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No80c133.71$107 inWon+$27.161,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No78c132.03$103 inWon+$29.372,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes12c102$12 inLost-$12.028321.7%18 W · 65 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-47.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed No10c100$10 inWon+$9022116.7%37 W · 184 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes12c96.67$11 inLost-$11.2619046.3%88 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No16c91.85$15 inWon+$77.1649024.9%122 W · 368 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3904…539bbacked No46c64.39$29 inWon+$34.9848362.5%302 W · 181 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf742…400ebacked Yes69c57.56$39 inLost-$39.4513613.2%18 W · 118 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost-$161,30132.9%428 W · 873 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes21c50$11 inLost-$10.772233.4%241 W · 481 L+32.9wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No41c36$15 inWon+$21.221,25459.8%750 W · 504 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes61c35.72$22 inLost-$21.7912,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes79c26.2$21 inLost-$20.723066.5%153 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bfd…c4cdbacked No46c26.02$12 inWon+$14.053171%22 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6282…35d0backed Yes79c24.72$20 inLost-$19.651968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No59c23.45$14 inWon+$9.732,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No44c22.92$10 inWon+$12.812,27456.7%1,289 W · 985 L+65.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc04…6f04backed Yes70c21.43$15 inLost-$15771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes80c18.75$15 inLost-$153351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No73c18.14$13 inWon+$4.892,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No71c15.31$11 inWon+$4.452,29559.3%1,360 W · 935 L+118.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No80c15$12 inWon+$393461.8%577 W · 357 L+2.9wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.