Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1732ffc2d5b6553f5bfa952c3267010f40c3cf64aeabb243ed6e27224c888064
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 39c | 1,199$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.12 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 9c | 935.72$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 527 | 43.6%230 W · 297 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 76c | 903.32$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.69 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 23c | 669.64$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.94 | 228 | 25.9%59 W · 169 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 570.86$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.5 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 73c | 538$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.42 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 75c | 514.44$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.04 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 27c | 462.93$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.54 | 286 | 32.2%92 W · 194 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 21c | 374.95$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.45 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 50c | 218.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.97 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 217.28$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 7c | 170.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.21 | 678 | 38.6%262 W · 416 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 132.42$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 126.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 25c | 110.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 442 | 51.4%227 W · 215 L | -13.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 86.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 86.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 29c | 86.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 26c | 78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 552 | 38.8%214 W · 338 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 219 | 40.6%89 W · 130 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 51c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.63 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 72c | 55.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 649 | 76.9%499 W · 150 L | +100.8wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 73c | 55.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 23c | 50.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 61c | 45.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 74c | 45.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 32c | 37.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 36.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 31c | 33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 194 | 21.6%42 W · 152 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 38c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 31.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 30.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 156 | 75.6%118 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 27.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 62c | 26.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 25.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 78c | 24.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 341 | 76.5%261 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…ac29backed No | 75c | 22.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 74c | 22.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 22.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 21.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 18.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,912 | 55.5%1,062 W · 850 L | +6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 77c | 13.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 13.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.