Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe08a668c884df45b21379b5564279c19a03c7b29d100c2e56b0f299c2036b19e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 21c | 673.54$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 21c | 416.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.89 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 8c | 138.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 23c | 133.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 132.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 26c | 131.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 71c | 118.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 116.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 92.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 26c | 90.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 238 | 47.9%114 W · 124 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 82.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 26c | 73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 21c | 72.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…c693backed Yes | 24c | 67.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 76c | 67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 26c | 62.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 286 | 32.2%92 W · 194 L | +13.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 28c | 61.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 490 | 24.9%122 W · 368 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 73c | 54.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…f87bbacked No | 75c | 53.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 25c | 52.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 70c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 76c | 47.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 26c | 46.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 45.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 72c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 485 | 46%223 W · 262 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 30.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa703…6a73backed No | 77c | 29.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 76c | 28.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 24.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 76c | 20.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 71 | 78.9%56 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 16.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 277 | 50.2%139 W · 138 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on August 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on August 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on August 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on August 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.