Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c558d1a7d2e5b702d99765a581b08059efaedd1000ec5c4197fb9891d7818b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 659.84$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.3 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 264.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 212.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 62c | 185.23$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 60c | 176.63$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.65 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 62c | 138.16$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 130$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 40c | 122.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 120.31$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 104.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…6a0fbacked Yes | 38c | 99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 92.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 87.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed No | 63c | 78.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 64.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 37c | 64.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 62c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 34c | 62.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 61c | 59.74$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 40c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 37.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 31.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 66c | 30.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 35c | 29.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 61c | 29.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd199…d9cbbacked No | 63c | 28.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 61c | 27.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b3…f95ebacked No | 63c | 25.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 25.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 66c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…8b12backed No | 75c | 19.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 54 | 88.9%48 W · 6 L | +12.5wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +40%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 16.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.