Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e7d73043c08d971cbe5ef852ac3d7edd54cc69a91590969c649e5c160b6c9c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 28c | 892.82$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.51 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 72c | 279.41$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.48 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 35c | 256.19$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.23 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 218.86$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 31c | 176.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.18 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 171.64$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 169.74$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 29c | 146.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 132.39$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 120.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 75c | 113.56$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 68c | 101$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 94.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 93.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…6a0fbacked Yes | 28c | 88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 23c | 86.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 86.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 28c | 80.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 62c | 65.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 73c | 64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 36c | 61.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 39c | 57.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 53.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked Yes | 76c | 50.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed Yes | 52c | 49.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 47.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 43.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 72c | 43.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 60c | 41.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 71c | 40.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 35.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb52…ef8abacked No | 61c | 35.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 32.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 50c | 31.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 63c | 28.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 52c | 23.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 19.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 75c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 70c | 19.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 57c | 18.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 75c | 18.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 16.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…5e0bbacked Yes | 73c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.