Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c6851e0b987b5adf0e2af59d78e1e586fa517a586d7d59b8d8aa94fdab9f5b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 9c | 975.54$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.45 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 718.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 661.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.24 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 582.83$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 14c | 509.57$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 489.07$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 12c | 308.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.33 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 262.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.66 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 14c | 197.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.39 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 193.23$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 9c | 154.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.49 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…26e5backed No | 57c | 139.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 71c | 130.97$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.86 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 19c | 129$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.73 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 119.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 13c | 116.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 14c | 110.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.77 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 40c | 101.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 15c | 97.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 17c | 90.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.72 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 62c | 88.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 12c | 86.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…a7c3backed Yes | 17c | 84.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 83.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 17c | 80.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 17c | 79.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x320e…9f45backed Yes | 15c | 79.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 27c | 71.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 68.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 51c | 65.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 19c | 65.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 59c | 62.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 33c | 59.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 52c | 53.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 35c | 46.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 69c | 45.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 33c | 45.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0740…517fbacked Yes | 75c | 37.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 62c | 36.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 48c | 35.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 35.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…8660backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Yes | 75c | 32.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 63c | 30.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 67c | 30.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 41c | 25.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 61c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 15.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 78c | 14.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.