Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1ad1feb9a53f3adae62ec97737df068155b6b6775d8c05a5369e20944c0f366
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 39c | 1,894$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 1,825$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.08 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…f6ebbacked Yes | 48c | 1,810$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 903.96$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.85 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 672$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 58c | 600$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.25 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 488.96$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.71 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 428.91$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.73 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 402.77$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 359.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 357$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.77 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 49c | 315.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.73 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 50c | 297.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.05 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 50c | 286.91$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 267.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 25c | 240.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 216$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed No | 78c | 196.23$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 193.2$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 48c | 184.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 50c | 181.67$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 169.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 51c | 162.94$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 155.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 155.39$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 142.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 50c | 137.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 50c | 137.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 41c | 134$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 52c | 129$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 124.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 35c | 123.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 116$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 115.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 114.47$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…12d4backed Yes | 47c | 114.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 25c | 113.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 27c | 108.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 45c | 102.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 30c | 101.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 101.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 68c | 97.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 96.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 96.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 52c | 94.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 89.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Yes | 35c | 84.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 82.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 65c | 80.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 78.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 47c | 78.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 69.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 69.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…01cabacked Yes | 50c | 62.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 64c | 61.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 22c | 61.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes | 52c | 57.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed No | 64c | 56.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 48c | 52.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 50.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb187…3abfbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…131ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320e…9f45backed Yes | 38c | 47.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 43.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed70…04cebacked No | 60c | 42.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 52c | 41.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 45c | 41.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 65c | 40.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 29c | 37.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 46c | 36.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…79a1backed No | 61c | 32.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 50c | 31.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 53c | 29.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 42c | 28.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 45c | 28.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 50c | 25.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 50c | 25.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 54c | 25.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 52c | 24.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 48c | 24.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 55c | 24.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 46c | 23.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 23.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 48c | 22.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3f…bc25backed No | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.