Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c8c49093255e0d33f0c7a7be4c1c39a7e78390750e70eae3d4509e5fac44b4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 43c | 470.35$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.26 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 29c | 197.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 24c | 155.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 140.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 57c | 127.14$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 28c | 121.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 34c | 113.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 111.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 59c | 108$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 79c | 99.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 99.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 95.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 93.8$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 58c | 85.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 81.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 16c | 77.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 35c | 73.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 71.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 71.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…106cbacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…ad75backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked Yes | 80c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 57.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 51.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 50.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1afc…fb8dbacked Yes | 59c | 49.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 48.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 39c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 79c | 45.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 45.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 45c | 44.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 69c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 26c | 42.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 42.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 45c | 36.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…4801backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 46c | 32.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 57c | 31.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 66c | 24.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 45c | 23.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 45c | 23.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 21.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 67c | 19.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 61c | 18.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 79c | 17.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 66c | 17.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 60c | 16.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 74c | 13.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 73°F or below on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on May 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.