MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cb4f47c05a44a87b8ec0201cbbc8f8fb9370e49fe3f270f99c785cecefb2f88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Kansas City Royals, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 19c | 1,089$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 29c | 1,065$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.13 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Kansas City Royals | 72c | 374.55$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.89 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 282.61$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.61 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 22c | 254$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Kansas City Royals | 74c | 217$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Athletics | 21c | 199.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Athletics | 25c | 141.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 140$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 33c | 134.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Athletics | 34c | 119.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics | 54c | 98.22$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Athletics | 52c | 87.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Kansas City Royals | 80c | 75.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…b2cebacked Athletics | 38c | 52.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics | 38c | 47.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 45.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Athletics | 29c | 45.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Kansas City Royals | 77c | 42.43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe184…9f5abacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…96b8backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Athletics | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Kansas City Royals | 71c | 28.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 25.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 68c | 23.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 13.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 14.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.