MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaac4ddced52a7f990e81042518506db23800750b5faa668c4b73296c4e77330f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 57c | 7,994$4,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,556.78 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 43c | 4,500$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,565 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 2,416$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 2,366$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.77 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…e11cbacked Over | 44c | 1,364$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.63 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Over | 44c | 1,364$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.63 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 74c | 1,143$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.36 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 43c | 1,010$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.7 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 43c | 703.46$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.97 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 681$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.17 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 57c | 641$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.37 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 29c | 579.31$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.64 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 22c | 554$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 43c | 272.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.42 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 43c | 216.27$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 43c | 158$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 43c | 157$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.49 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 45c | 108.62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 70c | 96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 53c | 86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 57c | 84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 46c | 73.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 58c | 72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 30c | 58.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 68c | 46.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 37.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Over | 54c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 76c | 35.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 42c | 33.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 57c | 31.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 43c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Over | 73c | 19.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 73c | 16.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 13.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 14.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.