Premier League · resolved market
Newcastle vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cd44de080e21bfc96573e338a2ce9d6cdeebc29db7991d6595ad038f97a8be6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 25c | 9,412$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324.39 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 7,282$5,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638.29 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Under | 50c | 3,995$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.69 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 32c | 3,419$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.93 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 23c | 2,340$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.41 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc25…0343backed Under | 71c | 2,332$1,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 38c | 638.02$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.39 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 62c | 443.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 215 | 48.8%105 W · 110 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 31c | 431.3$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.66 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Under | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 75c | 161.01$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…8056backed Under | 67c | 148.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 64c | 140.63$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 279 | 55.9%156 W · 123 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x024e…2e48backed Over | 33c | 121.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fe…025cbacked Under | 72c | 111.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…253cbacked Over | 38c | 101.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Over | 38c | 40.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…7b19backed Under | 69c | 32.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 410 | 40.5%166 W · 244 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Over | 42c | 28.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Newcastle vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: Newcastle (-1.5)Burnley FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.