Spread: Newcastle (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10bd62fef38069847a0a177618903e19342ddbfd52fadd721caed42d6808abe7

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Burnley FCof Newcastle, Burnley FC
Resolved: Dec 6, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $207,453
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $209,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,453 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Burnley FC	50c	167,574$83,787 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83,786.75	218	53.2%116 W · 102 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0bc…af98backed Newcastle	50c	161,890$80,945 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80,945.01	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Burnley FC	49c	11,318$5,584 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,733.79	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7fe3…1654backed Newcastle	50c	8,000$4,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,000	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Newcastle	48c	7,099$3,408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,407.63	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Newcastle	50c	6,585$3,293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,292.5	57	52.6%30 W · 27 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Burnley FC	50c	5,500$2,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,750	1,283	48%616 W · 667 L	-5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x934e…e7c0backed Newcastle	50c	2,992$1,496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,496	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Burnley FC	50c	2,754$1,377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,377	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Newcastle	50c	2,200$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	59	47.5%28 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefbd…8086backed Newcastle	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	175	44%77 W · 98 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Newcastle	52c	1,450$753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$753.49	164	53.7%88 W · 76 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Burnley FC	55c	1,180$654 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$525.38	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ba4…c08bbacked Newcastle	49c	1,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	149	43%64 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Newcastle	48c	711.41$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.88	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Burnley FC	18c	695.24$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$567.29	1,004	46.3%465 W · 539 L	+25.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x159f…5862backed Newcastle	50c	678$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Newcastle	49c	612$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.88	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Newcastle	50c	358.29$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.42	292	59.2%173 W · 119 L	+14.1wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Burnley FC	51c	300$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147	320	37.2%119 W · 201 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf70a…541dbacked Newcastle	64c	300$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+2.6wins	+0.11per pick	32cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Newcastle	50c	280$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	89	27%24 W · 65 L	-11.9wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x79cc…8026backed Newcastle	50c	241.18$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.59	127	53.5%68 W · 59 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Burnley FC	50c	233.73$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.63	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a9f…c2a6backed Newcastle	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae8…5794backed Newcastle	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfe…8aaebacked Newcastle	55c	200$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Newcastle	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Burnley FC	8c	181$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.27	614	41.2%253 W · 361 L	-27.4wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Newcastle	52c	170.52$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.67	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Newcastle	50c	158.4$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.2	234	35.9%84 W · 150 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x891d…dd26backed Burnley FC	51c	140$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.6	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4e…2c1fbacked Newcastle	55c	127.27$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	103	42.7%44 W · 59 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Newcastle	49c	122$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.78	655	57.7%378 W · 277 L	+26.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Newcastle	49c	121.99$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.78	605	57.5%348 W · 257 L	+25.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Burnley FC	55c	110$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.5	165	58.8%97 W · 68 L	+12.6wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Newcastle	45c	110$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	86	46.5%40 W · 46 L	+7.7wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Newcastle	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	99	38.4%38 W · 61 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Newcastle	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	86	53.5%46 W · 40 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Newcastle	53c	97.68$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.77	237	41.8%99 W · 138 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64ae…532bbacked Burnley FC	52c	84.21$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.69	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Newcastle	49c	81$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.69	255	60%153 W · 102 L	+18.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1683…e4abbacked Newcastle	50c	79.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	77	45.5%35 W · 42 L	-6.5wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb630…00edbacked Newcastle	50c	66$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Burnley FC	50c	61.56$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.76	401	50.1%201 W · 200 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Newcastle	49c	61$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.89	375	54.9%206 W · 169 L	+14.1wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01fa…c2edbacked Newcastle	44c	60$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Newcastle	53c	60$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.8	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c6e…ccc7backed Newcastle	54c	60$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7543…1852backed Newcastle	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.17per pick	39cpaid	+80.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e30…01b0backed Newcastle	45c	57.5$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	93	35.5%33 W · 60 L	-6.2wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Newcastle	50c	56$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	420	48.6%204 W · 216 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d69…beecbacked Newcastle	54c	55.66$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2909…c95cbacked Newcastle	54c	55.56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-5.9wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Newcastle	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	326	56.7%185 W · 141 L	+16.1wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Newcastle	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	367	58.3%214 W · 153 L	+23.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+15%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x71f6…e115backed Newcastle	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	65	53.8%35 W · 30 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x450e…c1dfbacked Newcastle	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	63	61.9%39 W · 24 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+16%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x725a…c06cbacked Newcastle	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-4.4wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Burnley FC	46c	37.04$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	257	52.1%134 W · 123 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Burnley FC	46c	28.83$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.57	322	55.9%180 W · 142 L	+13.4wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Burnley FC	52c	28.34$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.46	259	49.4%128 W · 131 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Burnley FC	50c	25.95$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.98	59	57.6%34 W · 25 L	+8.6wins	+0.15per pick	43cpaid	+45%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Newcastle	49c	23.11$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.32	296	57.8%171 W · 125 L	+16.6wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Newcastle	49c	21.6$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.58	383	58.2%223 W · 160 L	+24.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+16%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9d8…0d98backed Newcastle	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-3.5wins	-0.18per pick	55cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Newcastle (-1.5)this page
Newcastle vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Newcastle vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Newcastle vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Newcastle vs. Burnley FC: O/U 3.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Newcastle (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event