Middle East · resolved market
Israel confirms it has nuclear weapons in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d34c3fa462dc5e0b9d1d374d14dfc4a211c404f03860e5273e1ac67fa4580a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 15c | 5,123$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.55 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…c71bbacked Yes | 12c | 4,943$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 3,741$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.22 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 11c | 3,338$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.45 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 12c | 2,989$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.51 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed Yes | 6c | 2,422$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 6c | 903.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8456…e61abacked Yes | 1c | 783.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e3…e145backed Yes | 28c | 708.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…61d6backed Yes | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 677.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d85…a385backed Yes | 15c | 667.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 10c | 599.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…9bb2backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 424.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 406.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 329$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…129bbacked Yes | 5c | 295$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 283.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 6c | 228.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf08…b700backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf514…f2f9backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…add0backed Yes | 18c | 194.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…a930backed Yes | 14c | 192.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…3959backed Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 12c | 151.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7476…d6d6backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…b156backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed Yes | 17c | 82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…b3ddbacked Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 73c | 53.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 80c | 40.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.