Asian League · resolved market
Fagiano Okayama vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d496d35caf85b79c4636e6a527e71b05f56a32c858ea2d2ecb11fa2eedafe1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 28c | 20,704$5,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,906.55 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 5,880$2,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,973.81 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 69c | 3,447$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.03 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 77c | 2,700$2,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,075.43 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 58c | 1,525$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.79 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 69c | 1,411$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.79 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…6674backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Under | 13c | 723.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.08 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 27c | 600$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.79 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 12c | 483.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.33 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 51c | 324.02$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.26 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 321.28$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 50c | 314.01$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.76 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 47c | 300.01$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 49c | 242$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.28 | 181 | 61.9%112 W · 69 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…e756backed Under | 54c | 181.19$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 13c | 151.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.82 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Over | 63c | 150$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 59c | 119.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -11.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 35c | 117.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 73c | 112.63$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.22 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e41…ca06backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 72c | 90.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Over | 59c | 82.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 43c | 80.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +7.1wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x13a0…e8b9backed Under | 63c | 78.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 73c | 53.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 38c | 44.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Over | 55c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 44c | 32.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0195…9f64backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Over | 73c | 24.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…6c79backed Over | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 73c | 21.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 63c | 18.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 0.5this page
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Tōkyō Verdy: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Tōkyō Verdy: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Tōkyō Verdy: 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Tōkyō Verdy: Fagiano Okayama O/U 1.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 1.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 2.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 4.5Under won
- Fagiano Okayama vs. Tōkyō Verdy: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
- Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-2.5)Tōkyō Verdy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.