Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d629225c85e0905776806e368468d6db313452ad9608cfd838af07f943d34e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdaee…be17backed Yes | 27c | 9,997$2,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134e…95bebacked No | 73c | 9,997$7,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…5165backed Yes | 27c | 970$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…55b5backed Yes | 27c | 550$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 21c | 544.64$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 28c | 544.42$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 76c | 533.87$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.57 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…f60abacked No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 396.75$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.09 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa124…4891backed Yes | 29c | 339.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da5…bd38backed No | 73c | 335$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8773…302fbacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 299.99$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 147 | 54.4%80 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa47…552bbacked Yes | 28c | 260.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…9026backed Yes | 28c | 228.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3a…236cbacked No | 73c | 215$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55dd…193abacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…a5b0backed No | 73c | 170$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…d87fbacked No | 73c | 170$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ee…dd52backed Yes | 27c | 144$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…e725backed No | 73c | 144$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 139$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 73c | 124$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 31c | 99.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…cd85backed Yes | 36c | 94.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…4926backed No | 74c | 76.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked No | 73c | 54.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 73c | 52.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe8…5bbdbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 72c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 72c | 30.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1021…2e13backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…f588backed No | 78c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked No | 72c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford end in a draw?this page
- Will Brentford win on 2025-05-01?Yes won
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-05-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.