TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,785
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,035

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,785 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ee1…9801backed No5c1,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No46c1,212$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.374,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes37c1,121$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.989634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes64c1,034$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.7427047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes26c884.59$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.9542130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes47c816.21$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.7927079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed Yes77c792.78$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.518942.7%38 W · 51 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No60c761.77$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.8131262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes28c696.16$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.1611438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes8c691.42$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.292,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes10c665.49$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.1717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes50c633.19$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.2895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No45c626.27$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.7560121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed Yes73c622.01$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.885944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes14c606.32$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.7956434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes61c554.37$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.2711227.7%31 W · 81 L+12.3wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+175.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No64c482.46$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.033,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed Yes32c476.69$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.953941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes36c414.24$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.2417135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes13c414.14$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.145427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes8c402.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.699,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes75c396.25$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.4731649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked No6c361.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x718c…11e0backed No72c355.19$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.885164.7%33 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-3.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed Yes28c354.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.146053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No53c346.19$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.921,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No79c343$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.73,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No61c342.04$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.442,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No52c341$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.325,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes28c315$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.9734624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes11c306.26$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.4493837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes10c300.73$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.141,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes32c281.5$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.2612228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c278$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.754,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked No73c272.56$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.1319160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes70c272.32$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6625839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bdc…a0babacked No74c271.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.188068.8%55 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No32c263.49$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.067,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes24c248$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.610053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x0813…017ebacked Yes79c233.54$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.21955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes8c229.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.223836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes67c224.54$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.082138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c219.34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.672,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c195.88$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes45c187$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.981,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes29c186.37$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.8229732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c180.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.392,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes32c170$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.631,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe45e…717ebacked Yes66c163.88$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.176471.9%46 W · 18 L+10.8wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+48.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes8c163.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.731,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes51c158$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9320144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0675…1ec0backed Yes11c151.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.921656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+42.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4cc6…43f0backed No66c150.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-36.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x997e…7e58backed No59c141.2$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.392744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x01d0…7b12backed No59c140.75$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.73135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a6f…e1c7backed Yes10c134.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.11947.4%9 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick29cpaid+142.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes79c134.4$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-88.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes15c130$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.5120534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c128$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No65c127.58$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0635058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No70c127.4$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8744659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc293…c389backed Yes57c126.9$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.193886.8%33 W · 5 L+6.3wins+0.17per pick70cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9999…0654backed Yes62c126.36$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.511225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No53c125.03$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6639157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5576…59e9backed Yes11c124.17$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.9317033.5%57 W · 113 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d29…5111backed Yes57c120$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4143…7104backed Yes22c120$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6345…c77dbacked Yes12c118.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.711020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid+14.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No31c118.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.132,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes68c117.11$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4914222.5%32 W · 110 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes64c110.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.461,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes37c108.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2327421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No53c105.85$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3943859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes19c104.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.739239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes79c101.73$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7311362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8425742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ac…2c3ebacked Yes12c100$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked No70c99.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.992050%10 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes47c97.3$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.755,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No76c96.8$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0942976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes28c96.1$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.241,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x804d…cf86backed No78c88.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.577552%39 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes35c80$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6541046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xed30…87b1backed No22c78.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9118549.7%92 W · 93 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes36c76.8$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8753437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x923f…6c4abacked No20c73.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.797346.6%34 W · 39 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes21c71.77$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7719848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No25c70$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.21,27534%433 W · 842 L+46.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes63c69.24$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8898160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd68c…69d0backed Yes38c67.88$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.885100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+69.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes33c67$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.670133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40f6…7bd7backed Yes77c65.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.284100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No36c64.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.482,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes22c63.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0911337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe587…dc56backed Yes35c60$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0857…dc72backed Yes67c59.91$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.913737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe7f6…0bfbbacked Yes26c57.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.33728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No35c57.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.893,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes75c54$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.