TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,238
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,975

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,238 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f74…8774backed Yes10c1,700$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.4221236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes3c1,429$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7357614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes2c1,412$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.922,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes3c1,110$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5515717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed Yes7c821.68$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.945944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes4c602.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.181,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked No71c542.21$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.849634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No79c528$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.255,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes2c496.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1825839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed Yes13c465.08$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.073941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes4c439.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4834624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No72c396.08$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.656434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No68c377.8$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.242,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b2…d69dbacked Yes28c355.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-43.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No72c342.28$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.531,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No68c333.02$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.114,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes46c324.13$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c319.75$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes34c310$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked Yes4c295.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.828920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bba…a7a7backed Yes5c268.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes37c260$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.772,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa054…a95dbacked No57c255.52$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1739966.2%264 W · 135 L+33.6wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes28c232.48$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.911,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fac…b5b4backed Yes24c219.68$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.91287.1%2 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-82.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9999…0654backed Yes8c218.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.41225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes29c173.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-88.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes27c170$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.53836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes14c163.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3313424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes22c159.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.420534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes32c150.43$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.682,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa498…727bbacked Yes29c147.63$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.959728.9%28 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes36c141.96$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5974338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes30c134.88$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.519341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No76c127.84$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6160121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed7b…7b92backed No60c127.63$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.154065%26 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked No75c123.97$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes23c122.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1217440.8%71 W · 103 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No60c122.37$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x743e…f405backed No66c121.13$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.131361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No68c117.16$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.042,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x531b…da26backed Yes23c116.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.112733.1%42 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes37c116$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.921,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No60c115.78$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.687,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5045238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes44c113.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3937835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes38c110.18$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4218534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes19c100.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.841,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.84126.8%11 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4039427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes38c99.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes35c99.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9812941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No76c99.67$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3143859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No75c92.71$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.443,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No63c90.11$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.991,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa223…0894backed No56c87.15$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.353565.7%23 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes35c85.41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.929,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34c6…be53backed Yes29c82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.131838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0813…017ebacked Yes37c80.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes29c80.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.425,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No63c79.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3683360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes33c75.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.079425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes29c71.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.918,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No59c70.88$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7888973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6924…b011backed Yes20c70$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.832128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xced2…0d6bbacked No63c66.38$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4515669.2%108 W · 48 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes35c65.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.144945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked No70c65$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4513160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes17c64.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.093,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5127…6f96backed No55c61.12$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.512374%91 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0767…56d1backed Yes30c61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.13250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed No78c60.21$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.046053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7492…ba55backed Yes42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.240%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes35c57.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016836.3%61 W · 107 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No63c56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.722,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No66c55.77$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7226067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes36c55.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…1bcebacked No65c55$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.257100%7 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+93.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcfb5…c34fbacked No55c54.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5412962.8%81 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No62c52.76$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.072,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fc2…0018backed Yes39c50.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+47.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.734934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.57425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed Yes35c49.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.434457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No62c49.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1944646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes38c49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4219037.4%71 W · 119 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes26c47.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.471,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe217…5c75backed Yes38c46.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5616030%48 W · 112 L-15.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-38.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No61c44.8$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff9…fa6abacked Yes23c44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.121747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes35c42.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0359125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a6f…e1c7backed Yes35c42.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.021947.4%9 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick29cpaid+142.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4cbb…ca06backed No78c42.06$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.062857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb1a…9d0abacked Yes36c41.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a2…1585backed Yes36c41.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.