Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2734ce0c2c2e1476af9147e98c7beb3384f0d7f1024b9a31bfe7336e07d07070
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 10c | 1,700$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.42 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,429$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,412$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 3c | 1,110$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 7c | 821.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 602.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked No | 71c | 542.21$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.84 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 528$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 2c | 496.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 13c | 465.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 4c | 439.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 72c | 396.08$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 377.8$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.24 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…d69dbacked Yes | 28c | 355.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 72c | 342.28$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 333.02$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 46c | 324.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 319.75$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 34c | 310$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 4c | 295.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bba…a7a7backed Yes | 5c | 268.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 260$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.77 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 57c | 255.52$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.17 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 232.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.91 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed Yes | 24c | 219.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…0654backed Yes | 8c | 218.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes | 29c | 173.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 27c | 170$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 14c | 163.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 22c | 159.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 150.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 29c | 147.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 141.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 30c | 134.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 76c | 127.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 60c | 127.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 75c | 123.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 23c | 122.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 60c | 122.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x743e…f405backed No | 66c | 121.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 117.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 23c | 116.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 116$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 115.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 113.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 38c | 110.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 19c | 100.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 35c | 99.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 76c | 99.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 92.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 63c | 90.11$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa223…0894backed No | 56c | 87.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 85.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…be53backed Yes | 29c | 82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0813…017ebacked Yes | 37c | 80.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 80.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 79.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 33c | 75.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 71.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 59c | 70.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…b011backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 63c | 66.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 35c | 65.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 64.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 55c | 61.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…56d1backed Yes | 30c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 78c | 60.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…ba55backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 66c | 55.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…1bcebacked No | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 55c | 54.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 62c | 52.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…0018backed Yes | 39c | 50.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 38c | 49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 26c | 47.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 38c | 46.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 44.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…fa6abacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 42.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…e1c7backed Yes | 35c | 42.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…ca06backed No | 78c | 42.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…9d0abacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…1585backed Yes | 36c | 41.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.