Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x873a2cf911c5540e93c4bb16404add9db2a13ec1d729ea042b1aee6af9539ee3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,244$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes | 5c | 1,047$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 2c | 911.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 30c | 825.23$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.59 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 810.19$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.49 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 803$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 58c | 799.99$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.5 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…0c07backed Yes | 40c | 753.16$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.72 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 742.46$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.64 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 33c | 651.78$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.68 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 47c | 650.99$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.9 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 4c | 593.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2c…a9f3backed Yes | 45c | 551.31$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 34c | 523.36$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.64 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 31c | 484.35$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.84 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 453$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 53c | 409.87$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.23 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 41c | 406.71$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.99 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 385.96$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.34 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 30c | 385.35$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.38 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 68c | 383.81$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.92 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 330$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 30c | 318.53$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 310$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.95 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 20c | 309.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 26c | 300.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 50c | 294.1$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.17 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 19c | 278.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 43c | 276.41$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.45 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 60c | 255.3$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.76 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 248.69$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 5c | 246.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 47c | 242.47$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.72 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 18c | 230.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 66c | 228.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 44c | 210.58$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.46 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…7104backed Yes | 28c | 203.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 65c | 200.17$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 57c | 199.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 36c | 192.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed Yes | 51c | 191.69$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 29c | 183.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 57c | 176.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 10c | 174.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 33c | 171.01$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 49c | 166.2$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.17 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 49c | 166.07$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 18c | 165.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 163.24$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…d69dbacked Yes | 62c | 161.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 34c | 157$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 151.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 67c | 148.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 57c | 141.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes | 19c | 132.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 130.69$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 41c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe587…dc56backed No | 75c | 129.73$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 69c | 128.47$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 33c | 122.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 37c | 122.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 62c | 120.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 23c | 119.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 37c | 118.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 46c | 115.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 38c | 112.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 32c | 112.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 66c | 103.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 48c | 101.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 101.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 55c | 100.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes | 23c | 96.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed Yes | 29c | 92.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 60c | 89.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…0654backed Yes | 31c | 88.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 28c | 87.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 86.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 86.34$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 45c | 84.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…7e58backed No | 80c | 84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 60c | 82.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 27c | 82.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 48c | 80.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d4babacked Yes | 41c | 80.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 57c | 74.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 71.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C or below on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.