TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,680
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,162

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,680 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes6c1,244$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.12,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes5c1,047$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504652.2%24 W · 22 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes2c911.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2315717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes30c825.23$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.5925839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes43c810.19$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.4965043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No63c803$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.325,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No58c799.99$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.556434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb166…0c07backed Yes40c753.16$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.723941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No58c742.46$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.644,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes33c651.78$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.6895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes47c650.99$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.921236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes4c593.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b2c…a9f3backed Yes45c551.31$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes34c523.36$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.649634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes31c484.35$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.8442130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No57c453$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.624,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed7b…7b92backed No53c409.87$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.234065%26 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes41c406.71$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.995427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes44c400$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17611249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No64c385.96$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.342,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes30c385.35$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3812941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No68c383.81$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.921,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes11c330$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.91,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes30c318.53$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9860121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes31c310$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.952,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes20c309.99$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6113531.1%42 W · 93 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes26c300.7$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.811,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes50c294.1$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1714222.5%32 W · 110 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes19c278.03$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8334624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes43c276.41$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.4529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No60c255.3$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7699963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c248.69$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.235,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes5c246.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.213,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes47c242.47$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.721,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes18c230.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.289744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes66c228.61$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504445.5%20 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes44c210.58$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4611438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…7104backed Yes28c203.7$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.23828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No65c200.17$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1731649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No57c199.99$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8716046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed Yes36c192.72$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.766053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d29…5111backed Yes51c191.69$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1add…a268backed Yes29c183.51$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.545248.1%25 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes57c176.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes10c174.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes33c171.01$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3519148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes49c166.2$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1756543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked No49c166.07$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.71,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes18c165.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3044945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No55c163.24$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.937,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b2…d69dbacked Yes62c161.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-43.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes34c157$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0620144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes38c151.74$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8274338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes39c150$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes67c148.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10089661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No57c141.06$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9939159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes19c132.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-88.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No70c130.69$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.912,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes41c130$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.13836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe587…dc56backed No75c129.73$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.48955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked No69c128.47$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2754143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c127.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.892,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes33c122.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4018534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes37c122.49$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3720534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No62c120.19$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8441258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes20c120$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2457614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes23c119.73$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.113,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes37c118.48$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes46c115.9$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3111337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes38c112.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.679341.9%39 W · 54 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes32c112.13$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3611835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No66c103.62$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.831,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No48c101.28$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9339158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes36c101.17$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.825,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed Yes55c100.03$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.645944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.63,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ba…e33abacked No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes47c99.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes23c96.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228234.1%28 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No62c95$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.151,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes29c92.53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.832828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes39c90$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.938551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No60c89.15$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0539157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9999…0654backed Yes31c88.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.741225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe978…ab29backed Yes28c87.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256563.1%41 W · 24 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes26c86.52$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No74c86.34$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.362,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes45c84.25$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x997e…7e58backed No80c84$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.092744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No37c83$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.094,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes60c82.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes27c82.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4410053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe34d…41f0backed Yes48c80.9$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8312147.9%58 W · 63 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7bd…d4babacked Yes41c80.47$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2441046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No57c74.91$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0243859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed Yes34c73.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259832.7%32 W · 66 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No60c71.71$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.852,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.