Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d7662cdce752539c77085f11769a94638a6174364e380cbed8abcdc12f6874d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed No | 58c | 976.54$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.77 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 60c | 857.95$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.76 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 28c | 683.34$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc53d…4346backed No | 2c | 478.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 61c | 450.94$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.87 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 20c | 437$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.6 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 15c | 423.46$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.73 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 63c | 349.58$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.64 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.99 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 60c | 296.93$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.7 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 28c | 256.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.54 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 250.14$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 239$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.07 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 228.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 63c | 228.19$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.69 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 49c | 224.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 28c | 212.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.45 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63e8…abbbbacked Yes | 20c | 193.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked Yes | 63c | 175.21$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 32c | 147.21$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 14c | 146.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.29 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 28c | 139.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 11c | 138.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 42c | 119.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 108.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked No | 14c | 103.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…f983backed No | 55c | 101.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…7014backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…dee9backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 53c | 99.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 11c | 91.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed No | 19c | 87.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 44c | 83.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 75c | 79.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…522dbacked Yes | 30c | 77.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 14c | 73.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 72.28$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 26c | 72.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked Yes | 21c | 67.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 18c | 63.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed Yes | 77c | 59.91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…00ecbacked No | 40c | 59.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 56.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 54.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 53.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 50c | 47.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 24c | 43.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked Yes | 64c | 38.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 61c | 30.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 50c | 30.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…55edbacked Yes | 50c | 28.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 51c | 27.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 52c | 27.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 66c | 26.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…1e1abacked No | 50c | 26.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 79c | 25.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…cb90backed Yes | 67c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63dc…ecefbacked No | 80c | 13.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.