Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29c00de8883a8bd53694cbb2ea391dfa38ee001871297be14e21429b8b689bfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,484
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,484 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8297…d600backed No | 67c | 860.56$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.1 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2a…420abacked Yes | 3c | 683.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 33c | 439.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 8c | 334.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 37c | 329.08$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 287.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa3…6906backed Yes | 12c | 285.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…e201backed Yes | 16c | 278.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 80c | 249.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 234.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 23c | 206.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 46c | 205.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 32c | 186.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 182.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 181.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 22c | 145.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…4ca4backed Yes | 50c | 144.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 39c | 129.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 12c | 124.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 111.67$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…dee9backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 50c | 98.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 59c | 97.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63e8…abbbbacked Yes | 38c | 96.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 39c | 96.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 55c | 95.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 42c | 89.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 87.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 27c | 63.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 39c | 60.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 49c | 58.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 54.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 51.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb14c…4231backed Yes | 39c | 48.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 47.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed No | 65c | 47.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 46.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 62c | 46.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 75c | 46.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 60c | 42.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 55c | 41.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 40c | 37.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 37.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…0353backed No | 68c | 35.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 59c | 34.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 34.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 52c | 34.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 34.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 73c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 60c | 31.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked Yes | 36c | 31.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 72c | 30.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 65c | 29.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 65c | 29.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…4a37backed No | 66c | 19.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 54c | 19.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 60c | 19.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 60c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 65c | 18.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x63dc…ecefbacked No | 64c | 16.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 65c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.