MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d7a5a3cc58be3b64e20aa86d0daa9d32c341ae2b87e108e0d3f6e9a95256858
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 58c | 1,568$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 1,234$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 59c | 1,111$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.49 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 41c | 1,025$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.02 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 36c | 1,020$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.2 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 41c | 726.26$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.41 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 572.18$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 60c | 545.5$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Under | 41c | 523.57$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.91 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 41c | 435$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.65 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 373.37$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 34c | 206.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…e25dbacked Under | 49c | 199.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.75 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 69c | 138$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.98 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 43c | 103$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 40c | 90.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 39c | 75.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 63c | 64.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed Under | 77c | 64.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…d004backed Over | 60c | 49.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 65c | 42.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 67c | 34.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 64c | 33.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 62c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 65c | 25.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…7272backed Over | 60c | 24.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 58c | 21.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…9b79backed Under | 72c | 18.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.