MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf4b6e7e308a9c59e71fcd9569e42c308d0496fd7fd3118d603c215637fa995d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 2,920$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.89 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…5228backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 2,778$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,777.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…f43ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 2,419$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.35 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 2,380$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.33 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 2,250$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.26 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 2,127$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.02 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 1,892$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.27 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 1,509$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.79 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 1,500$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0940…3640backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 1,374$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 1,229$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.75 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 37c | 1,130$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 1,054$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.68 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Detroit Tigers | 64c | 541.23$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.39 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 400$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.39 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…95d5backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 374.86$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 341.19$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 320$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.16 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 305$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.15 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 288$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.96 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 209.5$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 131.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 127$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 111.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Detroit Tigers | 65c | 84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 77.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Detroit Tigers | 64c | 59.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…b9d8backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 151 | 38.4%58 W · 93 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Detroit Tigers | 66c | 21.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Cleveland Guardians | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 3.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.