Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Montana State Bobcats vs. Weber State Wildcats: O/U 148.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9daeea447c49052fa5f250a3576f620f9687fcd279febffe1576ee478204e10e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 47c | 45,086$21,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,905.84 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 53c | 34,276$18,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,016.13 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Under | 54c | 13,807$7,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,455.73 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 3,811$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,019.92 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…b408backed Over | 47c | 2,256$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.64 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Over | 47c | 2,053$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.06 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +16.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…6dfebacked Under | 54c | 684.74$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.76 | 274 | 50%137 W · 137 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 45c | 442.24$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.23 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 52c | 416.67$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.67 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 392.38$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.04 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Under | 58c | 344.47$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.3 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…ea6fbacked Under | 54c | 302.9$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.76 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 55c | 180.24$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Over | 45c | 129.77$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Over | 48c | 100.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 46c | 97.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 55c | 90.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 83.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 54c | 83.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 59.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 54c | 48.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Under | 57c | 43.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f6…b8c6backed Under | 58c | 42.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf29…6870backed Under | 54c | 35.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4a…7045backed Under | 55c | 24.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Weber State Wildcats: O/U 148.5this page
- Montana State Bobcats vs. Weber State WildcatsWeber State Wildcats won
- Spread: Weber State Wildcats (-1.5)Weber State Wildcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.