Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9daf1b0f75fee42a77462fc7f309c619c02726a96ec859d62cc92636b5b2e1e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,237 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 3c | 1,203$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…336cbacked Under | 80c | 628.76$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 11c | 517.57$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 21c | 286$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 280.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…30d9backed Under | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 78c | 122.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 20c | 67.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…4c1bbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 78c | 44.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…48e3backed Under | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 77c | 27.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Under | 79c | 15.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5this page
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5Under won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Under won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.