Bundesliga · resolved market
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c13dfc639b0e37064394c3417b9e482a28139a69bc5024c317d58d235f645fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,448 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 64c | 5,966$3,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,815.4 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 4,901$3,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755.95 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 36c | 3,905$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,495.91 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 38c | 2,500$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 1,581$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.5 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Over | 62c | 800$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 741.98$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 64c | 737.5$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 63c | 715.24$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Over | 63c | 600$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 21c | 591$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.93 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 37c | 580.95$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Over | 63c | 534.92$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…9949backed Over | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 36c | 400$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 38c | 370$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Over | 41c | 340.55$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 21c | 340$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 38c | 325$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…1768backed Over | 62c | 299.98$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -7.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -47%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 37c | 278.41$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.4 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Over | 52c | 259.62$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 254.9$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.66 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 38c | 232.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.96 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dde…2c06backed Over | 43c | 230$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 62c | 221.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.06 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 36c | 200.97$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 38c | 185$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 63c | 175.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.87 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 62c | 159.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.83 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883c…474dbacked Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 30c | 131.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…e1eebacked Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 17c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f2…fe1bbacked Over | 63c | 80.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 39c | 75.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed Over | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.14per pick | 70cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Under | 71c | 56.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 36c | 55.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…922bbacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Over | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Over | 63c | 38.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d4…3691backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…edb9backed Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -7.6wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…c2bbbacked Over | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d1…356dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5this page
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5Under won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Under won
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.