Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dc2ec49cfa021620973912f932cb5710048fdd641b53e78dbc0ea438dd02691
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Inner Circleof Inner Circle, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f50…0eafbacked Inner Circle | 60c | 1,182$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 1,053$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e5…9401backed Inner Circle | 61c | 821.15$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 536.69$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.19 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Inner Circle | 34c | 405$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.35 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 400.09$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.82 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 396.41$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.09 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…951cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 367$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.29 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Inner Circle | 30c | 347.33$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.39 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nigma Galaxy | 7c | 330$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 328.47$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.64 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Inner Circle | 43c | 325.58$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.95 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nigma Galaxy | 42c | 281.9$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 278.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Inner Circle | 48c | 270.83$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.29 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Nigma Galaxy | 20c | 226.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 214.46$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Inner Circle | 32c | 160$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.08 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…b433backed Inner Circle | 32c | 141.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Inner Circle | 59c | 126.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170e…1a1abacked Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 98.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 86.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Inner Circle | 52c | 77.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 72.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…6c52backed Inner Circle | 31c | 68.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nigma Galaxy | 36c | 53.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 48.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Inner Circle | 32c | 46.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 46.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Inner Circle | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…9cf6backed Inner Circle | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 39.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Nigma Galaxy | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Inner Circle | 52c | 35.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3326…82c5backed Inner Circle | 34c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 30.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Nigma Galaxy | 70c | 30.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 29.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Inner Circle | 51c | 29.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d47…0592backed Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c67…a0e0backed Inner Circle | 49c | 28.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 25.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…d1e7backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 24.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 24.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…77babacked Nigma Galaxy | 71c | 20.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…1fc1backed Inner Circle | 60c | 20.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerInner Circle won
- Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.