Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dc5a9ef0276845760dbf4fb07185923d4853be3b09b3bf388d01e485250485e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 571.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 44c | 280.26$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.91 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 50c | 202.84$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.82 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked No | 20c | 177.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 62c | 146.18$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd45d…583bbacked Yes | 32c | 135.13$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…0103backed Yes | 79c | 126.19$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…8acbbacked Yes | 69c | 125$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Yes | 64c | 119.06$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 60c | 101.01$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d8…a90ebacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 48c | 83.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x431e…1a89backed Yes | 45c | 74.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 56c | 69.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed Yes | 39c | 68.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3332…2941backed Yes | 57c | 67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 36c | 59.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…5a8bbacked Yes | 48c | 58.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…d91bbacked Yes | 78c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 57c | 52.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed Yes | 45c | 52.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 53c | 49.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 44.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 37c | 44.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…78b1backed Yes | 48c | 42.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +18.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 32c | 41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 29c | 40.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 39c | 39.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7c…7b69backed No | 31c | 37.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 34.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…4a8bbacked No | 68c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca3…335dbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 52c | 29.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…af3fbacked No | 64c | 27.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6c…0b29backed No | 58c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 58c | 21.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…03c4backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…eab8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 72c | 18.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 74c | 16.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C or higher on February 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.