MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e162a83c2d7fc45a16bbe23801a60eb9cd589e4450195bc0659a7053fc0e8e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 6,401$3,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,392.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 3,925$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 2,324$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.72 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 1,050$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.22 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…730abacked Over | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 46c | 634.02$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.9 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 46c | 617.99$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.91 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 47c | 552$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.56 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 54c | 457.95$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.29 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb4…c2c4backed Under | 46c | 438.63$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 54c | 393.9$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.7 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 53c | 369.1$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.1 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 46c | 347.58$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 345.41$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 47c | 138$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 53c | 126$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 123.07$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 46c | 110.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 46c | 109$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.86 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 52c | 105.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 48c | 105$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 52c | 94.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 29c | 92.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Over | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 53c | 64.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 49c | 46.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 53c | 34.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 53c | 28.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 53c | 24.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.