Music · resolved market
Will Jamal Roberts win American Idol season 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e188bc8e49318bf51a34469886a70abf4398c878c582eeef2ad7bf928cc7d18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 56c | 1,359$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 44c | 475.85$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.57 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 45c | 170$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 141$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 57c | 88.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -6.6wins | -0.41per pick | 60cpaid | -68%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 46c | 82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6577…2660backed Yes | 45c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 46c | 44.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000b…0872backed Yes | 71c | 41.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 30c | 40.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…8935backed Yes | 54c | 36.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jamal Roberts win American Idol season 23?this page
- Will Breanna Nix win American Idol season 23?No won
- Will John Foster win American Idol season 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.